Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$155.90 - $642.32$402.09
Multi-Stage$76.63 - $83.84$80.17
Blended Fair Value$241.13
Current Price$20.57
Upside1,072.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS58.41%29.73%0.580.270.510.170.070.060.040.040.040.04
YoY Growth--115.25%-46.83%203.76%124.31%27.92%39.22%0.53%0.18%0.18%-3.61%
Dividend Yield--2.47%1.72%3.86%1.36%0.60%0.99%0.50%0.54%0.67%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.765.483.29
Cash Retained (M)31.9031.9031.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.76-5.48-3.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.1426.4228.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.5713.5713.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.711.952.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.711.952.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.582.832.99
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$155.90$402.09$642.32
Upside / Downside657.89%1,854.72%3,022.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.8246.6749.7052.9356.3760.0361.84
Payout Ratio27.20%39.76%52.32%64.88%77.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.9218.5526.0034.3443.6554.0357.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17.1417.3017.46
Year 2 PV (M)22.1822.6123.03
Year 3 PV (M)27.0627.8428.63
Year 4 PV (M)31.7733.0034.25
Year 5 PV (M)36.3238.0839.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)905.10948.82994.21
Equity Value (M)1,039.581,087.641,137.49
Shares Outstanding (M)13.5713.5713.57
Fair Value$76.63$80.17$83.84
Upside / Downside272.51%289.73%307.60%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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