Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Loblaw Companies Limited (L-PB.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.14 - $290.96$198.34
Multi-Stage$208.80 - $229.32$218.86
Blended Fair Value$208.60
Current Price$56.31
Upside270.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.04%-0.77%1.511.811.701.551.911.511.451.081.401.37
YoY Growth---16.55%6.38%9.53%-18.62%26.09%4.55%34.56%-23.06%2.16%-16.13%
Dividend Yield--2.99%4.81%5.52%5.53%10.87%8.34%8.77%8.34%9.68%9.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,466.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)787.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,679.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)493.20308.25184.95
Cash Retained (M)1,679.001,679.001,679.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-493.20-308.25-184.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,185.801,370.751,494.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)304.15304.15304.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.514.91
LTM Dividend per Share2.592.592.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.514.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.497.097.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Fair Value$141.14$198.34$290.96
Upside / Downside150.64%252.23%416.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,466.002,531.482,598.692,667.692,738.522,811.232,895.57
Payout Ratio31.91%43.53%55.15%66.77%78.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)787.001,101.981,433.141,781.102,146.532,530.112,678.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Year 1 PV (M)1,026.311,036.411,046.51
Year 2 PV (M)1,243.081,267.651,292.47
Year 3 PV (M)1,438.811,481.691,525.42
Year 4 PV (M)1,614.951,679.441,745.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,772.821,861.751,954.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,410.3759,240.0962,182.25
Equity Value (M)63,506.3466,567.0469,746.70
Shares Outstanding (M)304.15304.15304.15
Fair Value$208.80$218.86$229.32
Upside / Downside270.80%288.67%307.24%

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