Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kimberly-Clark de México, S. A. B. de C. V. (KIMBERA.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.67 - $472.64$168.60
Multi-Stage$111.02 - $121.92$116.37
Blended Fair Value$142.48
Current Price$34.40
Upside314.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%2.71%1.871.631.651.731.610.000.001.591.540.75
YoY Growth--14.81%-1.22%-4.78%7.30%0.00%0.00%-100.00%3.62%105.11%-47.61%
Dividend Yield--5.58%4.20%4.34%6.19%4.62%0.00%0.00%4.76%3.79%1.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,459.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,290.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,169.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,491.97932.48559.49
Cash Retained (M)3,169.413,169.413,169.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,491.97-932.48-559.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,677.442,236.922,609.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,057.783,057.783,057.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.952.132.26
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Fair Value$86.67$168.60$472.64
Upside / Downside151.94%390.12%1,273.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,459.867,737.388,025.238,323.788,633.448,954.629,223.26
Payout Ratio57.51%64.01%70.51%77.01%83.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,290.454,952.785,658.456,409.777,209.168,059.168,531.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)4,669.974,715.434,760.90
Year 2 PV (M)5,030.695,129.125,228.50
Year 3 PV (M)5,373.265,531.725,693.27
Year 4 PV (M)5,698.295,923.456,155.22
Year 5 PV (M)6,006.416,304.526,614.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)312,697.29328,217.38344,347.67
Equity Value (M)339,475.91355,821.62372,799.91
Shares Outstanding (M)3,057.783,057.783,057.78
Fair Value$111.02$116.37$121.92
Upside / Downside222.73%238.27%254.41%

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