Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Karelia Tobacco Company Inc. (KARE.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$411.96 - $682.65$531.70
Multi-Stage$417.53 - $455.83$436.33
Blended Fair Value$484.02
Current Price$312.00
Upside55.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.48%3.86%12.4011.8011.009.409.409.499.199.208.519.29
YoY Growth--5.08%7.29%16.99%-0.01%-0.97%3.31%-0.06%8.05%-8.39%9.41%
Dividend Yield--4.00%3.47%3.50%3.33%3.03%3.89%3.51%3.22%3.22%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.0211.897.13
Cash Retained (M)58.4258.4258.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.02-11.89-7.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4046.5351.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.2716.8618.58
LTM Dividend per Share13.3013.3013.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.2716.8618.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.5730.1631.88
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate3.48%4.48%5.48%
Fair Value$411.96$531.70$682.65
Upside / Downside32.04%70.42%118.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.1299.39103.85108.50113.37118.45122.01
Payout Ratio38.58%48.87%59.15%69.43%79.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.7048.5761.4375.3490.37106.61112.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate3.48%4.48%5.48%
Year 1 PV (M)43.5743.9944.41
Year 2 PV (M)49.4350.3951.36
Year 3 PV (M)54.3855.9757.60
Year 4 PV (M)58.5260.8163.18
Year 5 PV (M)61.9264.9768.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)884.57928.15973.42
Equity Value (M)1,152.391,204.281,258.10
Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
Fair Value$417.53$436.33$455.83
Upside / Downside33.82%39.85%46.10%

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