Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.80 - $13.24$10.90
Multi-Stage$15.46 - $17.00$16.21
Blended Fair Value$13.56
Current Price$19.33
Upside-29.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.220.200.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--14.48%11.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.51%1.26%0.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.941.841.10
Cash Retained (M)10.4210.4210.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.94-1.84-1.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.488.589.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.2314.2314.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Fair Value$8.80$10.90$13.24
Upside / Downside-54.48%-43.61%-31.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.6914.6314.5714.5114.4614.4014.83
Payout Ratio29.07%41.25%53.44%65.63%77.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.276.047.799.5311.2512.9613.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate-1.40%-0.40%0.60%
Year 1 PV (M)5.545.605.65
Year 2 PV (M)6.566.696.83
Year 3 PV (M)7.377.597.82
Year 4 PV (M)7.988.318.65
Year 5 PV (M)8.448.889.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)184.08193.60203.52
Equity Value (M)219.97230.68241.81
Shares Outstanding (M)14.2314.2314.23
Fair Value$15.46$16.21$17.00
Upside / Downside-20.02%-16.13%-12.08%

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