Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$109.76 - $289.50$167.54
Multi-Stage$75.76 - $82.75$79.19
Blended Fair Value$123.37
Current Price$178.58
Upside-30.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.03%12.92%1.210.980.840.750.690.630.550.480.420.38
YoY Growth--23.39%16.76%12.30%8.92%9.38%14.33%14.42%14.08%10.66%5.91%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.62%0.69%0.75%0.74%1.18%0.99%1.02%1.15%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7617.3510.41
Cash Retained (M)97.0097.0097.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.76-17.35-10.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.2479.6586.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.5229.5229.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.352.702.93
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.352.702.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.764.114.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$109.76$167.54$289.50
Upside / Downside-38.54%-6.18%62.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.78147.80157.40167.63178.53190.14195.84
Payout Ratio30.10%42.08%54.06%66.04%78.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.7862.2085.10110.71139.29171.12181.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.4757.0057.54
Year 2 PV (M)70.1471.4772.82
Year 3 PV (M)82.8485.2287.64
Year 4 PV (M)94.6298.26102.01
Year 5 PV (M)105.54110.63115.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,827.171,915.422,007.05
Equity Value (M)2,236.772,338.012,442.99
Shares Outstanding (M)29.5229.5229.52
Fair Value$75.76$79.19$82.75
Upside / Downside-57.57%-55.65%-53.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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