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Definitive Analysis

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Bell Financial Group Limited (BFG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.80 - $5.61$3.89
Multi-Stage$3.89 - $4.26$4.08
Blended Fair Value$3.98
Current Price$1.15
Upside246.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.80%20.88%0.080.070.090.110.080.080.070.050.040.03
YoY Growth--6.67%-16.67%-18.18%29.41%10.56%5.78%53.41%21.55%39.72%132.29%
Dividend Yield--5.97%5.47%9.18%5.88%4.67%6.46%8.55%6.51%5.54%5.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.676.674.00
Cash Retained (M)5.235.235.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.67-6.67-4.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.44-1.441.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)320.84320.84320.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.02%3.02%4.02%
Fair Value$2.80$3.89$5.61
Upside / Downside143.14%238.24%387.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53.3454.9556.6158.3260.0861.9063.75
Payout Ratio90.20%90.16%90.12%90.08%90.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.1149.5451.0252.5354.1055.7158.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate2.02%3.02%4.02%
Year 1 PV (M)45.9146.3646.81
Year 2 PV (M)43.8044.6745.54
Year 3 PV (M)41.8043.0444.30
Year 4 PV (M)39.8841.4743.10
Year 5 PV (M)38.0539.9541.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,040.011,091.991,146.03
Equity Value (M)1,249.451,307.471,367.70
Shares Outstanding (M)320.84320.84320.84
Fair Value$3.89$4.08$4.26
Upside / Downside238.63%254.36%270.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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