Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

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Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co., Ltd. (603228.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.18 - $78.12$45.80
Multi-Stage$21.74 - $23.70$22.70
Blended Fair Value$34.25
Current Price$62.97
Upside-45.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.70%12.98%0.480.510.300.280.200.350.220.270.130.03
YoY Growth---5.28%70.83%7.26%37.04%-41.85%58.26%-18.08%107.82%274.27%-75.70%
Dividend Yield--1.41%2.48%1.17%1.18%0.77%1.12%0.66%1.00%0.54%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,212.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)756.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)456.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)242.54151.5990.95
Cash Retained (M)456.32456.32456.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-242.54-151.59-90.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)213.77304.73365.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)923.91923.91923.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.330.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.330.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.18$45.80$78.12
Upside / Downside-52.07%-27.27%24.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,212.721,291.551,375.501,464.911,560.131,661.541,711.38
Payout Ratio62.37%67.90%73.42%78.95%84.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)756.40876.941,009.941,156.531,317.911,495.381,583.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)795.73803.27810.81
Year 2 PV (M)831.55847.39863.38
Year 3 PV (M)864.06888.87914.14
Year 4 PV (M)893.45927.81963.15
Year 5 PV (M)919.88964.311,010.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,780.5616,542.7617,334.14
Equity Value (M)20,085.2320,974.4121,896.07
Shares Outstanding (M)923.91923.91923.91
Fair Value$21.74$22.70$23.70
Upside / Downside-65.48%-63.95%-62.36%

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