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China Railway Group Limited (601390.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.77 - $208.42$120.07
Multi-Stage$30.72 - $33.64$32.15
Blended Fair Value$76.11
Current Price$5.51
Upside1,281.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.61%5.56%0.930.990.890.190.180.120.140.450.470.52
YoY Growth---5.29%11.17%370.68%6.51%42.01%-11.12%-68.63%-5.54%-8.92%-4.42%
Dividend Yield--16.89%13.71%12.89%3.12%2.99%2.32%1.90%6.06%5.36%6.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,807.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,483.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,323.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,961.443,100.901,860.54
Cash Retained (M)12,323.6712,323.6712,323.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,961.44-3,100.90-1,860.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,362.239,222.7710,463.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23,474.2323,474.2323,474.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.920.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Fair Value$48.77$120.07$208.42
Upside / Downside785.16%2,079.20%3,682.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,807.1926,198.1127,667.0129,218.2830,856.5232,586.6233,564.22
Payout Ratio50.32%58.26%66.19%74.13%82.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,483.5215,262.4318,313.7121,659.1825,322.2329,327.9631,046.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)14,205.8614,341.6614,477.47
Year 2 PV (M)15,865.8916,170.6816,478.37
Year 3 PV (M)17,465.2217,970.9018,486.26
Year 4 PV (M)19,005.4419,742.6720,501.13
Year 5 PV (M)20,488.1121,486.3022,523.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)634,143.35665,039.21697,127.71
Equity Value (M)721,173.86754,751.42789,593.97
Shares Outstanding (M)23,474.2323,474.2323,474.23
Fair Value$30.72$32.15$33.64
Upside / Downside457.57%483.53%510.47%

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