Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Inner Mongolia Junzheng Energy & Chemical Group Co.,Ltd. (601216.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.26 - $79.25$74.27
Multi-Stage$123.57 - $135.65$129.50
Blended Fair Value$101.88
Current Price$5.23
Upside1,848.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.50%26.36%0.340.190.180.340.390.050.220.040.040.04
YoY Growth--75.16%8.28%-47.50%-13.15%735.00%-79.32%483.17%-14.15%16.43%19.23%
Dividend Yield--6.11%5.14%3.91%7.34%7.35%1.89%5.48%0.80%0.92%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,362.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,380.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,981.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)672.45420.28252.17
Cash Retained (M)1,981.451,981.451,981.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-672.45-420.28-252.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,309.001,561.171,729.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,437.628,437.628,437.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate-16.25%-16.25%-16.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$67.26$74.27$79.25
Upside / Downside1,186.12%1,320.02%1,415.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,362.253,580.793,813.544,061.424,325.424,606.574,744.77
Payout Ratio41.07%50.85%60.64%70.43%80.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,380.791,820.982,312.552,860.343,469.574,145.914,388.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-16.25%-16.25%-16.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,153.892,174.302,194.72
Year 2 PV (M)3,235.403,297.033,359.24
Year 3 PV (M)4,733.394,869.275,007.73
Year 4 PV (M)6,791.237,052.407,321.04
Year 5 PV (M)9,598.6810,062.3010,543.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,016,126.711,065,206.011,116,163.69
Equity Value (M)1,042,639.301,092,661.311,144,590.07
Shares Outstanding (M)8,437.628,437.628,437.62
Fair Value$123.57$129.50$135.65
Upside / Downside2,262.72%2,376.08%2,493.75%

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