Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Caitong Securities Co.,Ltd. (601108.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.78 - $22.42$15.20
Multi-Stage$10.13 - $11.07$10.59
Blended Fair Value$12.90
Current Price$8.42
Upside53.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.66%22.56%0.350.330.420.370.310.270.300.160.150.21
YoY Growth--5.43%-21.23%14.86%17.75%17.27%-10.42%84.14%7.40%-27.14%349.79%
Dividend Yield--4.50%4.39%5.62%4.54%2.94%2.76%2.31%1.10%0.96%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,905.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,114.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,791.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)581.06363.16217.90
Cash Retained (M)1,791.281,791.281,791.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-581.06-363.16-217.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,210.221,428.111,573.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,850.174,850.174,850.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Fair Value$10.78$15.20$22.42
Upside / Downside28.06%80.51%166.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,905.323,047.633,196.923,353.533,517.803,690.133,800.83
Payout Ratio38.34%48.68%59.01%69.34%79.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,114.041,483.461,886.412,325.272,802.603,321.113,515.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Year 1 PV (M)1,354.011,367.041,380.08
Year 2 PV (M)1,571.551,601.951,632.63
Year 3 PV (M)1,768.121,819.671,872.20
Year 4 PV (M)1,945.122,021.092,099.27
Year 5 PV (M)2,103.852,207.072,314.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,376.4942,357.3344,415.16
Equity Value (M)49,119.1451,374.1453,713.63
Shares Outstanding (M)4,850.174,850.174,850.17
Fair Value$10.13$10.59$11.07
Upside / Downside20.28%25.80%31.53%

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