Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Orient Securities Company Limited (600958.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.07 - $52.06$26.02
Multi-Stage$16.12 - $17.65$16.87
Blended Fair Value$21.45
Current Price$11.44
Upside87.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.12%17.23%0.530.460.620.560.520.500.570.510.560.29
YoY Growth--14.52%-25.35%10.66%8.35%3.14%-11.99%12.69%-9.68%94.52%166.17%
Dividend Yield--5.62%5.57%6.34%5.21%5.95%5.61%4.78%4.15%3.89%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,158.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,262.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,895.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,031.70644.81386.89
Cash Retained (M)1,895.651,895.651,895.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,031.70-644.81-386.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)863.951,250.841,508.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,455.138,455.138,455.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Fair Value$16.07$26.02$52.06
Upside / Downside40.43%127.44%355.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,158.515,388.225,628.165,878.786,140.576,414.016,606.43
Payout Ratio63.25%68.60%73.95%79.30%84.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,262.863,696.404,162.094,661.925,198.015,772.616,110.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)3,434.473,467.673,500.87
Year 2 PV (M)3,593.133,662.933,733.40
Year 3 PV (M)3,739.453,848.943,960.54
Year 4 PV (M)3,874.014,025.984,182.39
Year 5 PV (M)3,997.394,194.364,399.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)117,673.84123,472.17129,496.84
Equity Value (M)136,312.29142,672.05149,273.06
Shares Outstanding (M)8,455.138,455.138,455.13
Fair Value$16.12$16.87$17.65
Upside / Downside40.93%47.50%54.32%

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