Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongtai Securities Co., Ltd. (600918.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.16 - $5.47$4.15
Multi-Stage$7.08 - $7.79$7.43
Blended Fair Value$5.79
Current Price$6.95
Upside-16.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.30%29.94%0.350.340.380.390.310.370.340.370.380.15
YoY Growth--1.79%-9.31%-3.60%24.39%-15.39%9.75%-7.64%-4.43%156.70%489.27%
Dividend Yield--5.40%5.07%5.61%4.78%2.35%5.87%5.35%5.79%6.06%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,734.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,182.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)551.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)346.92216.83130.10
Cash Retained (M)551.66551.66551.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-346.92-216.83-130.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)204.74334.83421.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,956.896,956.896,956.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Fair Value$3.16$4.15$5.47
Upside / Downside-54.54%-40.27%-21.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,734.611,743.631,752.691,761.811,770.961,780.171,833.58
Payout Ratio68.20%72.56%76.92%81.28%85.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,182.951,265.131,348.141,431.971,516.641,602.151,696.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.80%5.80%5.80%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Year 1 PV (M)1,183.851,195.741,207.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,180.471,204.311,228.39
Year 3 PV (M)1,173.311,209.041,245.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,162.841,210.291,259.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,149.481,208.401,269.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,411.2945,636.6047,952.25
Equity Value (M)49,261.2551,664.3954,162.66
Shares Outstanding (M)6,956.896,956.896,956.89
Fair Value$7.08$7.43$7.79
Upside / Downside1.88%6.85%12.02%

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