Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

AVIC Aviation High-Technology Co., Ltd. (600862.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.24 - $30.42$20.27
Multi-Stage$10.59 - $11.55$11.06
Blended Fair Value$15.67
Current Price$23.69
Upside-33.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.92%24.54%0.220.170.130.100.170.150.030.030.020.02
YoY Growth--35.16%26.59%26.91%-40.45%13.23%413.38%-9.09%33.02%6.20%-7.03%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.85%0.59%0.46%0.67%1.27%0.29%0.37%0.21%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,046.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)349.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)697.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)209.40130.8778.52
Cash Retained (M)697.74697.74697.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-209.40-130.87-78.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)488.35566.87619.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,390.891,390.891,390.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.24$20.27$30.42
Upside / Downside-39.88%-14.44%28.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,046.991,115.051,187.531,264.721,346.921,434.471,477.51
Payout Ratio33.36%44.69%56.01%67.34%78.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)349.25498.27665.19851.701,059.641,291.021,366.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)448.88453.13457.39
Year 2 PV (M)539.85550.13560.51
Year 3 PV (M)622.70640.58658.79
Year 4 PV (M)697.95724.79752.40
Year 5 PV (M)766.06803.06841.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,650.7212,213.4612,797.73
Equity Value (M)14,726.1715,385.1516,068.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,390.891,390.891,390.89
Fair Value$10.59$11.06$11.55
Upside / Downside-55.31%-53.31%-51.23%

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