Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kunyue Development Co., Ltd. (5206.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.58 - $139.23$103.43
Multi-Stage$198.19 - $218.42$208.11
Blended Fair Value$155.77
Current Price$34.82
Upside347.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.29%0.00%1.250.480.461.250.690.640.640.460.460.00
YoY Growth--160.00%4.17%-63.08%82.00%7.14%0.00%40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.30%1.55%2.85%8.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)925.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)722.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.04115.6569.39
Cash Retained (M)722.50722.50722.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.04-115.65-69.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)537.46606.85653.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)162.52162.52162.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.313.734.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.251.251.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.313.734.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.554.985.27
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Fair Value$77.58$103.43$139.23
Upside / Downside122.80%197.04%299.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)925.20928.79932.39936.01939.64943.29971.59
Payout Ratio21.91%35.53%49.15%62.76%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.70329.97458.23587.47717.72848.96898.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)310.47313.59316.72
Year 2 PV (M)405.66413.87422.15
Year 3 PV (M)489.35504.27519.49
Year 4 PV (M)562.50585.48609.16
Year 5 PV (M)626.04658.17691.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,815.3231,345.7532,938.40
Equity Value (M)32,209.3333,821.1335,497.53
Shares Outstanding (M)162.52162.52162.52
Fair Value$198.19$208.11$218.42
Upside / Downside469.18%497.66%527.29%

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