Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

UMW Holdings Berhad (4588.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.03 - $8.92$7.41
Multi-Stage$10.91 - $12.01$11.45
Blended Fair Value$9.43
Current Price$4.76
Upside98.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%-7.14%0.150.100.080.120.080.000.100.410.440.50
YoY Growth--48.10%25.07%-35.98%55.19%0.00%-100.00%-75.61%-6.82%-12.00%61.29%
Dividend Yield--3.84%3.03%2.45%5.82%1.41%0.00%1.81%6.46%4.39%4.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)887.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)686.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.47110.9266.55
Cash Retained (M)686.41686.41686.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.47-110.92-66.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)508.94575.49619.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.291,168.291,168.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.03$7.41$8.92
Upside / Downside26.62%55.66%87.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)887.33878.45869.67860.97852.36843.84869.15
Payout Ratio22.64%36.11%49.59%63.06%76.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.92317.25431.23542.90652.30759.45803.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)291.11294.08297.05
Year 2 PV (M)363.09370.54378.06
Year 3 PV (M)419.45432.42445.66
Year 4 PV (M)462.44481.61501.36
Year 5 PV (M)494.04519.77546.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,718.6711,276.8111,857.97
Equity Value (M)12,748.8013,375.2314,026.66
Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.291,168.291,168.29
Fair Value$10.91$11.45$12.01
Upside / Downside129.25%140.52%152.23%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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