Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SAL Saudi Logistics Services Co (4263.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.23 - $74.61$63.22
Multi-Stage$85.26 - $93.41$89.26
Blended Fair Value$76.24
Current Price$187.80
Upside-59.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%6.174.403.191.250.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--40.23%38.04%155.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%1.83%2.40%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)612.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)338.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)274.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.5776.6145.97
Cash Retained (M)274.16274.16274.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.57-76.61-45.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)151.59197.55228.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.0480.0480.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.892.472.85
LTM Dividend per Share4.234.234.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.892.472.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.136.707.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$52.23$63.22$74.61
Upside / Downside-72.19%-66.34%-60.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)612.87606.74600.68594.67588.72582.84600.32
Payout Ratio55.27%62.21%69.16%76.11%83.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)338.71377.47415.43452.58488.95524.55555.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)341.26344.75348.23
Year 2 PV (M)339.55346.52353.55
Year 3 PV (M)334.44344.78355.33
Year 4 PV (M)326.66340.19354.15
Year 5 PV (M)316.82333.32350.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,165.685,434.675,714.75
Equity Value (M)6,824.417,144.227,476.51
Shares Outstanding (M)80.0480.0480.04
Fair Value$85.26$89.26$93.41
Upside / Downside-54.60%-52.47%-50.26%

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