Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Huishang Bank Corporation Limited (3698.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.61 - $79.11$54.14
Multi-Stage$48.19 - $52.86$50.48
Blended Fair Value$52.31
Current Price$3.52
Upside1,386.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.15%4.32%0.240.500.460.420.520.380.360.180.300.16
YoY Growth---52.58%7.39%10.89%-19.18%35.61%5.26%99.41%-39.56%85.34%4.90%
Dividend Yield--10.14%23.07%21.09%19.56%24.09%14.91%12.12%5.59%9.33%6.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,855.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,886.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,968.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,171.023,856.882,314.13
Cash Retained (M)21,968.8521,968.8521,968.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,171.02-3,856.88-2,314.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,797.8318,111.9619,654.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,889.8013,889.8013,889.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.301.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.301.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.781.942.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.32%3.32%4.32%
Fair Value$38.61$54.14$79.11
Upside / Downside996.89%1,438.02%2,147.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,855.0831,880.0432,939.0534,033.2435,163.7736,331.8637,421.82
Payout Ratio28.80%41.04%53.28%65.52%77.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,886.2313,083.5417,549.9022,298.5627,343.3432,698.6834,615.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.32%3.32%4.32%
Year 1 PV (M)12,105.7112,224.0212,342.33
Year 2 PV (M)15,024.6515,319.7615,617.74
Year 3 PV (M)17,663.2818,186.2318,719.40
Year 4 PV (M)20,040.6120,835.6021,654.02
Year 5 PV (M)22,174.5223,279.4824,428.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)582,277.82611,292.68641,452.83
Equity Value (M)669,286.59701,137.77734,214.37
Shares Outstanding (M)13,889.8013,889.8013,889.80
Fair Value$48.19$50.48$52.86
Upside / Downside1,268.91%1,334.05%1,401.70%

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