Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CENTRAL REIT Investment Corporation (3488.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$364,820.14 - $1,226,581.16$596,616.13
Multi-Stage$372,406.88 - $407,764.80$389,756.82
Blended Fair Value$493,186.48
Current Price$119,500.00
Upside312.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS5.40%0.00%7,054.486,465.027,283.616,077.905,504.375,422.885,550.290.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.12%-11.24%19.84%10.42%1.50%-2.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.90%5.57%6.27%4.82%4.74%6.28%4.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,390.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,444.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)946.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)678.13423.83254.30
Cash Retained (M)946.61946.61946.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-678.13-423.83-254.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.49522.78692.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.250.250.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,075.452,094.062,773.14
LTM Dividend per Share9,789.779,789.779,789.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,075.452,094.062,773.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,865.2111,883.8312,562.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Fair Value$364,820.14$596,616.13$1,226,581.16
Upside / Downside205.29%399.26%926.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,390.633,539.873,695.683,858.344,028.174,205.474,331.64
Payout Ratio72.08%75.67%79.25%82.83%86.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,444.022,678.452,928.783,195.973,481.003,784.924,006.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Year 1 PV (M)2,491.332,515.422,539.51
Year 2 PV (M)2,533.862,583.112,632.83
Year 3 PV (M)2,571.852,647.192,723.98
Year 4 PV (M)2,605.522,707.782,813.02
Year 5 PV (M)2,635.092,765.002,899.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,133.7484,084.3088,189.15
Equity Value (M)92,971.3897,302.79101,798.48
Shares Outstanding (M)0.250.250.25
Fair Value$372,406.88$389,756.82$407,764.80
Upside / Downside211.64%226.16%241.23%

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