Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Amoy Diagnostics Co., Ltd. (300685.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.00 - $29.81$19.90
Multi-Stage$10.40 - $11.35$10.87
Blended Fair Value$15.39
Current Price$23.00
Upside-33.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.00%45.84%0.160.140.130.140.090.070.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.88%9.13%-7.15%49.85%39.63%37.97%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-98.23%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.63%0.47%0.50%0.24%0.27%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)290.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)196.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.0236.2621.76
Cash Retained (M)196.49196.49196.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.02-36.26-21.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)138.47160.23174.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)390.64390.64390.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.00$19.90$29.81
Upside / Downside-39.13%-13.47%29.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)290.10308.96329.04350.42373.20397.46409.38
Payout Ratio32.27%43.81%55.36%66.91%78.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.61135.37182.16234.46292.79357.71378.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)121.93123.09124.24
Year 2 PV (M)147.79150.61153.45
Year 3 PV (M)171.34176.26181.28
Year 4 PV (M)192.74200.15207.77
Year 5 PV (M)212.10222.34232.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,218.133,373.573,534.96
Equity Value (M)4,064.044,246.024,434.68
Shares Outstanding (M)390.64390.64390.64
Fair Value$10.40$10.87$11.35
Upside / Downside-54.77%-52.74%-50.64%

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