Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhen Yu Hardware Co., Ltd. (2947.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.99 - $53.65$42.98
Multi-Stage$86.35 - $95.08$90.63
Blended Fair Value$66.81
Current Price$90.40
Upside-26.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-8.00%0.00%1.671.394.632.992.332.530.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.00%-70.00%54.97%28.17%-7.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.16%1.91%5.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)71.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.278.925.35
Cash Retained (M)30.9030.9030.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.27-8.92-5.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.6221.9825.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.7920.7920.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.801.061.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.951.951.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.801.061.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.753.003.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$33.99$42.98$53.65
Upside / Downside-62.40%-52.46%-40.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)71.3670.6569.9469.2468.5567.8669.90
Payout Ratio56.70%63.36%70.02%76.68%83.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.4644.7648.9753.0957.1361.0864.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.92%5.92%5.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)41.8442.2642.69
Year 2 PV (M)42.7843.6544.54
Year 3 PV (M)43.3444.6846.05
Year 4 PV (M)43.5945.3947.25
Year 5 PV (M)43.5545.8248.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,580.191,662.471,748.15
Equity Value (M)1,795.281,884.281,976.87
Shares Outstanding (M)20.7920.7920.79
Fair Value$86.35$90.63$95.08
Upside / Downside-4.48%0.25%5.18%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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