Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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MGM China Holdings Limited (2282.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.19 - $319.12$124.49
Multi-Stage$52.63 - $57.55$55.04
Blended Fair Value$89.77
Current Price$12.88
Upside596.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.48%-7.70%0.700.000.000.000.080.130.160.270.211.21
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-35.16%-20.50%-41.66%30.19%-82.58%-21.99%
Dividend Yield--7.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.62%1.00%1.22%1.20%1.31%12.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,804.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,934.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,869.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,760.811,100.51660.30
Cash Retained (M)3,869.543,869.543,869.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,760.81-1,100.51-660.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,108.732,769.033,209.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,815.203,815.203,815.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.84
LTM Dividend per Share1.291.291.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.730.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Fair Value$71.19$124.49$319.12
Upside / Downside452.74%866.58%2,377.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,804.069,300.109,824.0910,377.6110,962.3111,579.9511,927.35
Payout Ratio56.05%62.84%69.63%76.42%83.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,934.525,844.056,840.417,930.499,121.7010,421.9611,032.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Year 1 PV (M)5,392.515,444.055,495.59
Year 2 PV (M)5,824.205,936.066,048.98
Year 3 PV (M)6,230.626,410.986,594.78
Year 4 PV (M)6,612.786,869.227,133.05
Year 5 PV (M)6,971.637,311.217,663.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)169,757.53178,026.02186,613.61
Equity Value (M)200,789.29209,997.54219,549.89
Shares Outstanding (M)3,815.203,815.203,815.20
Fair Value$52.63$55.04$57.55
Upside / Downside308.61%327.35%346.79%

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