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Definitive Analysis

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China Development Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. (1606.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.34 - $143.05$134.06
Multi-Stage$20.31 - $22.24$21.26
Blended Fair Value$77.66
Current Price$1.59
Upside4,784.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.00%0.00%0.100.070.100.070.100.090.080.060.000.01
YoY Growth--38.81%-28.72%43.83%-25.84%9.83%15.89%38.56%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.90%5.91%11.17%7.56%10.13%6.66%4.37%3.68%0.00%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,093.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,249.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,844.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,818.781,136.74682.04
Cash Retained (M)6,844.206,844.206,844.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,818.78-1,136.74-682.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,025.425,707.466,162.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,642.3812,642.3812,642.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.34$134.06$143.05
Upside / Downside3,380.52%8,331.65%8,897.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,093.929,685.0210,314.5510,984.9911,699.0212,459.4612,833.24
Payout Ratio24.74%37.79%50.84%63.90%76.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,249.723,660.065,244.257,018.919,002.1311,213.5111,870.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,401.313,433.553,465.79
Year 2 PV (M)4,528.964,615.224,702.30
Year 3 PV (M)5,633.045,794.755,959.52
Year 4 PV (M)6,713.926,972.127,237.69
Year 5 PV (M)7,771.958,147.348,537.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)228,728.94239,776.63251,247.14
Equity Value (M)256,778.12268,739.61281,149.54
Shares Outstanding (M)12,642.3812,642.3812,642.38
Fair Value$20.31$21.26$22.24
Upside / Downside1,177.42%1,236.92%1,298.66%

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