Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KLN Logistics Group Limited (0636.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.36 - $57.71$39.67
Multi-Stage$40.37 - $44.33$42.31
Blended Fair Value$40.99
Current Price$7.59
Upside440.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.57%3.76%0.230.470.777.650.420.560.330.190.160.13
YoY Growth---51.06%-39.74%-89.91%1,718.57%-25.30%72.89%75.36%17.71%21.55%-17.51%
Dividend Yield--3.31%5.96%5.50%40.14%2.47%4.21%2.80%1.67%1.61%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,023.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)849.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,174.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)604.79377.99226.79
Cash Retained (M)2,174.442,174.442,174.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-604.79-377.99-226.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,569.651,796.441,947.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,825.891,825.891,825.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.860.981.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.860.981.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Fair Value$28.36$39.67$57.71
Upside / Downside273.64%422.61%660.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,023.933,107.413,193.213,281.373,371.963,465.053,569.01
Payout Ratio28.09%40.47%52.86%65.24%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)849.491,257.691,687.782,140.662,617.263,118.553,301.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Year 1 PV (M)1,169.271,180.761,192.25
Year 2 PV (M)1,458.821,487.631,516.72
Year 3 PV (M)1,720.181,771.401,823.62
Year 4 PV (M)1,955.312,033.312,113.62
Year 5 PV (M)2,166.032,274.572,387.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,234.2068,503.0971,901.72
Equity Value (M)73,703.8177,250.7680,935.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,825.891,825.891,825.89
Fair Value$40.37$42.31$44.33
Upside / Downside431.83%457.42%484.01%

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