Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Communications Technology Co., Ltd. (002061.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.31 - $91.23$85.50
Multi-Stage$14.22 - $15.56$14.88
Blended Fair Value$50.19
Current Price$4.15
Upside1,109.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.42%21.72%0.300.280.290.200.150.160.150.150.080.07
YoY Growth--4.71%-3.93%49.89%30.49%-4.62%4.40%1.87%94.17%13.78%61.93%
Dividend Yield--7.60%7.47%6.68%3.99%3.70%4.33%2.37%1.62%1.19%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,185.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)659.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)525.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.12148.2088.92
Cash Retained (M)525.73525.73525.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.12-148.20-88.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)288.60377.52436.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,584.532,584.532,584.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.31$85.50$91.23
Upside / Downside991.84%1,960.15%2,098.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,185.611,262.671,344.751,432.151,525.241,624.381,673.12
Payout Ratio55.66%62.53%69.39%76.26%83.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)659.88789.50933.181,092.201,267.961,461.951,547.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)735.36742.33749.30
Year 2 PV (M)809.58825.00840.57
Year 3 PV (M)882.56907.90933.71
Year 4 PV (M)954.32991.021,028.77
Year 5 PV (M)1,024.871,074.371,125.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,342.9933,905.1635,527.13
Equity Value (M)36,749.6738,445.7840,205.24
Shares Outstanding (M)2,584.532,584.532,584.53
Fair Value$14.22$14.88$15.56
Upside / Downside242.63%258.44%274.85%

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