Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yalian Machinery Co Ltd (001395.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.51 - $21.96$18.70
Multi-Stage$23.52 - $25.80$24.64
Blended Fair Value$21.67
Current Price$49.39
Upside-56.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.790.010.162.340.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.46%6,011.29%-91.74%-93.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%1.59%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.6521.0312.62
Cash Retained (M)117.88117.88117.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.65-21.03-12.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)84.2396.85105.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.8670.8670.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.191.371.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.191.371.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.902.082.20
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.51$18.70$21.96
Upside / Downside-68.59%-62.14%-55.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.24166.56164.90163.25161.61160.00164.80
Payout Ratio29.94%41.95%53.96%65.97%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.3769.8788.98107.70126.04144.00152.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)62.8863.5264.16
Year 2 PV (M)72.0673.5475.03
Year 3 PV (M)78.4980.9283.40
Year 4 PV (M)82.6686.0989.62
Year 5 PV (M)84.9989.4194.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,285.251,352.181,421.86
Equity Value (M)1,666.331,745.651,828.09
Shares Outstanding (M)70.8670.8670.86
Fair Value$23.52$24.64$25.80
Upside / Downside-52.39%-50.12%-47.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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