Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. (000596.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$995.96 - $1,780.35$1,668.45
Multi-Stage$287.98 - $314.98$301.23
Blended Fair Value$984.84
Current Price$160.58
Upside513.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.94%29.80%4.533.002.211.441.431.430.950.570.100.19
YoY Growth--50.73%35.76%53.85%0.54%0.09%50.00%66.67%500.00%-50.00%-42.86%
Dividend Yield--2.66%1.12%0.75%0.84%0.68%1.25%0.88%0.97%0.19%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,730.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,192.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,538.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)946.19591.37354.82
Cash Retained (M)1,538.721,538.721,538.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-946.19-591.37-354.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)592.53947.351,183.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)528.48528.48528.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.792.24
LTM Dividend per Share6.046.046.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.792.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.167.838.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$995.96$1,668.45$1,780.35
Upside / Downside520.22%939.01%1,008.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,730.965,038.475,365.975,714.766,086.226,481.836,676.28
Payout Ratio67.48%71.98%76.49%80.99%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,192.243,626.714,104.184,628.405,203.425,833.646,175.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,381.053,413.103,445.15
Year 2 PV (M)3,567.003,634.953,703.53
Year 3 PV (M)3,750.133,857.783,967.48
Year 4 PV (M)3,930.464,081.624,237.09
Year 5 PV (M)4,108.034,306.454,512.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)133,455.16139,901.09146,593.73
Equity Value (M)152,191.83159,194.98166,459.43
Shares Outstanding (M)528.48528.48528.48
Fair Value$287.98$301.23$314.98
Upside / Downside79.34%87.59%96.15%

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