Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Airport Co., Ltd. (000089.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.46 - $55.95$28.95
Multi-Stage$9.15 - $10.02$9.58
Blended Fair Value$19.27
Current Price$6.95
Upside177.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.95%13.32%0.170.070.110.000.080.080.100.080.050.05
YoY Growth--129.18%-31.24%3,343.47%-96.08%-1.52%-15.53%15.79%63.17%-3.51%8.20%
Dividend Yield--2.57%1.09%1.49%0.05%0.90%1.07%0.97%0.99%0.58%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)584.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)383.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)201.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.8573.0343.82
Cash Retained (M)201.17201.17201.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.85-73.03-43.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)84.32128.14157.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,051.072,051.072,051.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Fair Value$12.46$28.95$55.95
Upside / Downside79.26%316.59%705.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)584.27614.45646.19679.56714.66751.58774.12
Payout Ratio65.57%70.46%75.34%80.23%85.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)383.10432.91486.85545.20608.28676.42716.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate4.17%5.17%6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)404.26408.14412.02
Year 2 PV (M)424.53432.72440.98
Year 3 PV (M)443.94456.85470.00
Year 4 PV (M)462.52480.53499.07
Year 5 PV (M)480.28503.78528.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,558.9817,369.2318,210.90
Equity Value (M)18,774.5019,651.2520,561.17
Shares Outstanding (M)2,051.072,051.072,051.07
Fair Value$9.15$9.58$10.02
Upside / Downside31.71%37.86%44.24%

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