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Definitive Analysis

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PT Pelayaran Nelly Dwi Putri Tbk (NELY.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,163.72 - $14,632.49$13,712.79
Multi-Stage$2,172.85 - $2,377.03$2,273.07
Blended Fair Value$7,992.93
Current Price$380.00
Upside2,003.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.78%22.32%30.0035.0015.0025.003.506.506.003.004.003.00
YoY Growth---14.29%133.33%-40.00%614.29%-46.15%8.33%100.00%-25.00%33.33%-25.00%
Dividend Yield--7.61%7.00%4.90%8.06%2.45%4.22%3.85%2.16%4.60%2.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172,904.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)82,904.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34,580.8721,613.0512,967.83
Cash Retained (M)82,904.3782,904.3782,904.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-34,580.87-21,613.05-12,967.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)48,323.5061,291.3269,936.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,350.002,350.002,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.5626.0829.76
LTM Dividend per Share38.3038.3038.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.5626.0829.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend58.8664.3868.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,163.72$13,712.79$14,632.49
Upside / Downside1,522.03%3,508.63%3,750.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172,904.37184,143.16196,112.46208,859.77222,435.66236,893.97244,000.79
Payout Ratio52.05%59.64%67.23%74.82%82.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90,000.00109,825.77131,848.64156,270.46183,310.07213,204.58225,700.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)102,147.32103,115.54104,083.76
Year 2 PV (M)114,056.78116,229.24118,422.20
Year 3 PV (M)125,731.79129,341.10133,018.83
Year 4 PV (M)137,175.72142,451.11147,877.22
Year 5 PV (M)148,391.90155,559.28163,000.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,478,691.834,695,014.324,919,615.98
Equity Value (M)5,106,195.345,341,710.605,586,018.97
Shares Outstanding (M)2,350.002,350.002,350.00
Fair Value$2,172.85$2,273.07$2,377.03
Upside / Downside471.80%498.18%525.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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