Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Heiwa Real Estate REIT, Inc. (8966.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,096,766.52 - $2,535,443.11$2,376,081.51
Multi-Stage$382,006.21 - $417,773.17$399,562.45
Blended Fair Value$1,387,821.98
Current Price$127,700.00
Upside986.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.65%10.06%6,552.385,975.235,352.254,672.154,372.144,134.333,771.323,376.102,959.542,694.30
YoY Growth--9.66%11.64%14.56%6.86%5.75%9.63%11.71%14.08%9.84%7.28%
Dividend Yield--5.59%4.41%3.32%3.10%3.74%2.96%3.24%3.61%3.77%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,944.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,302.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,642.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,988.971,868.111,120.86
Cash Retained (M)5,642.375,642.375,642.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,988.97-1,868.11-1,120.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,653.403,774.264,521.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.171.171.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,263.523,219.693,857.14
LTM Dividend per Share7,935.627,935.627,935.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,263.523,219.693,857.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,199.1411,155.3111,792.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,096,766.52$2,376,081.51$2,535,443.11
Upside / Downside758.86%1,760.67%1,885.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,944.8515,916.2716,950.8218,052.6319,226.0520,475.7421,090.01
Payout Ratio62.25%67.80%73.35%78.90%84.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,302.4810,790.6412,432.9614,243.1916,236.2218,428.1719,508.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,038.7110,133.8610,229.01
Year 2 PV (M)10,760.5710,965.5311,172.43
Year 3 PV (M)11,468.2911,797.5012,132.96
Year 4 PV (M)12,162.0512,629.7613,110.85
Year 5 PV (M)12,842.0513,462.3214,106.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)390,532.73409,395.60428,980.41
Equity Value (M)447,804.39468,384.59489,731.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1.171.171.17
Fair Value$382,006.21$399,562.45$417,773.17
Upside / Downside199.14%212.89%227.15%

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