Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ajinomoto Co., Inc. (2802.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,235.56 - $20,812.04$8,985.61
Multi-Stage$2,335.86 - $2,552.49$2,442.20
Blended Fair Value$5,713.91
Current Price$3,909.00
Upside46.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.39%12.69%52.1651.1842.1536.3523.3623.4024.6022.7422.9821.30
YoY Growth--1.90%21.42%15.98%55.61%-0.17%-4.88%8.15%-1.03%7.88%34.81%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.78%1.47%2.20%1.62%2.61%2.63%2.17%1.89%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78,522.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39,428.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,094.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,704.409,815.255,889.15
Cash Retained (M)39,094.0039,094.0039,094.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,704.40-9,815.25-5,889.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,389.6029,278.7533,204.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)750.34750.34750.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.1739.0244.25
LTM Dividend per Share52.5552.5552.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.1739.0244.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend83.7291.5796.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,235.56$8,985.61$20,812.04
Upside / Downside8.35%129.87%432.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78,522.0083,625.9389,061.6294,850.62101,015.91107,581.94110,809.40
Payout Ratio50.21%58.17%66.13%74.09%82.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39,428.0048,645.3258,894.3270,270.1582,876.0196,823.75102,498.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44,791.0345,215.5945,640.15
Year 2 PV (M)49,931.3550,882.4051,842.43
Year 3 PV (M)54,855.5856,430.2858,034.84
Year 4 PV (M)59,570.1561,861.0564,217.40
Year 5 PV (M)64,081.3667,176.5270,390.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,479,454.541,550,912.751,625,105.83
Equity Value (M)1,752,684.021,832,478.601,915,230.78
Shares Outstanding (M)750.34750.34750.34
Fair Value$2,335.86$2,442.20$2,552.49
Upside / Downside-40.24%-37.52%-34.70%

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