Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MEISEI INDUSTRIAL Co.,Ltd. (1976.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,156.36 - $6,767.47$4,498.21
Multi-Stage$2,279.17 - $2,490.35$2,382.85
Blended Fair Value$3,440.53
Current Price$1,500.00
Upside129.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.14%20.03%62.9539.5033.2632.0632.0432.4930.2117.1911.939.94
YoY Growth--59.37%18.75%3.76%0.06%-1.41%7.57%75.70%44.08%20.08%-2.05%
Dividend Yield--4.20%2.96%3.38%4.55%4.38%4.07%4.12%2.13%1.75%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,986.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,001.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,985.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,597.20998.25598.95
Cash Retained (M)6,985.006,985.006,985.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,597.20-998.25-598.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,387.805,986.756,386.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.1048.1048.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share112.01124.46132.76
LTM Dividend per Share20.8120.8120.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share112.01124.46132.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend132.82145.27153.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,156.36$4,498.21$6,767.47
Upside / Downside110.42%199.88%351.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,986.008,505.099,057.929,646.6910,273.7210,941.5111,269.76
Payout Ratio12.53%28.03%43.52%59.01%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,001.002,383.773,942.075,692.877,654.639,847.3610,424.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,147.902,168.252,188.61
Year 2 PV (M)3,200.533,261.493,323.03
Year 3 PV (M)4,164.654,284.204,406.02
Year 4 PV (M)5,045.695,239.735,439.32
Year 5 PV (M)5,848.786,131.286,424.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)89,222.2193,531.6798,006.07
Equity Value (M)109,629.75114,616.63119,787.64
Shares Outstanding (M)48.1048.1048.10
Fair Value$2,279.17$2,382.85$2,490.35
Upside / Downside51.94%58.86%66.02%

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