Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Satellite Chemical Co.,Ltd. (002648.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$308.54 - $363.52$340.67
Multi-Stage$75.32 - $82.53$78.86
Blended Fair Value$209.76
Current Price$19.34
Upside984.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.38%20.45%0.530.160.670.290.060.090.060.060.030.03
YoY Growth--222.32%-75.72%131.35%407.72%-36.33%49.89%3.99%76.52%-6.64%-57.26%
Dividend Yield--2.29%0.88%4.20%1.44%0.42%1.89%1.02%1.01%0.70%1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,134.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,941.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,192.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,226.83766.77460.06
Cash Retained (M)4,192.984,192.984,192.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,226.83-766.77-460.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,966.153,426.213,732.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,355.893,355.893,355.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.021.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.021.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.601.69
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$308.54$340.67$363.52
Upside / Downside1,495.37%1,661.48%1,779.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,134.136,532.846,957.487,409.727,891.358,404.298,656.41
Payout Ratio31.65%43.32%54.99%66.66%78.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,941.152,829.773,825.714,939.176,181.217,563.868,007.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.51%5.51%5.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,656.712,681.892,707.07
Year 2 PV (M)3,372.083,436.313,501.15
Year 3 PV (M)4,087.274,204.604,324.15
Year 4 PV (M)4,802.264,986.945,176.90
Year 5 PV (M)5,517.065,783.546,060.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)232,320.14243,541.29255,191.90
Equity Value (M)252,755.53264,634.57276,961.39
Shares Outstanding (M)3,355.893,355.893,355.89
Fair Value$75.32$78.86$82.53
Upside / Downside289.44%307.74%326.73%

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