Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shaanxi Energy Investment (001286.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.51 - $11.71$9.45
Multi-Stage$18.07 - $19.88$18.95
Blended Fair Value$14.20
Current Price$8.94
Upside58.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.410.350.110.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--17.14%228.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.46%3.58%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,928.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,876.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,051.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)585.62366.01219.61
Cash Retained (M)1,051.601,051.601,051.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-585.62-366.01-219.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)465.98685.59831.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,725.103,725.103,725.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.51$9.45$11.71
Upside / Downside-16.01%5.67%31.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,928.112,898.832,869.842,841.152,812.732,784.612,868.14
Payout Ratio64.09%69.27%74.45%79.63%84.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,876.512,007.992,136.642,262.532,385.682,506.152,653.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,871.531,890.621,909.72
Year 2 PV (M)1,856.111,894.181,932.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,831.901,888.551,946.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,800.341,874.961,951.87
Year 5 PV (M)1,762.721,854.511,950.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,176.6361,206.0364,360.32
Equity Value (M)67,299.2370,608.8574,050.99
Shares Outstanding (M)3,725.103,725.103,725.10
Fair Value$18.07$18.95$19.88
Upside / Downside102.09%112.02%122.36%

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