Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$768.39 - $4,065.90$1,529.48
Multi-Stage$431.63 - $472.05$451.47
Blended Fair Value$990.48
Current Price$763.00
Upside29.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.20%8.34%5.204.523.933.432.982.682.572.432.402.36
YoY Growth--15.02%15.09%14.55%14.87%11.51%4.24%5.46%1.56%1.47%1.24%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.59%1.14%1.20%1.60%1.93%1.99%3.15%2.85%3.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,412.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,206.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,205.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,682.422,301.511,380.91
Cash Retained (M)13,205.3013,205.3013,205.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,682.42-2,301.51-1,380.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,522.8810,903.7911,824.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)900.59900.59900.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.5712.1113.13
LTM Dividend per Share5.785.785.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.5712.1113.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.3617.8918.91
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$768.39$1,529.48$4,065.90
Upside / Downside0.71%100.46%432.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,412.1019,608.8920,883.4622,240.8923,686.5525,226.1725,982.96
Payout Ratio28.28%40.62%52.97%65.31%77.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,206.807,965.7911,061.4614,525.9018,393.9922,703.5624,034.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,323.737,393.157,462.57
Year 2 PV (M)9,350.159,528.259,708.02
Year 3 PV (M)11,288.9311,612.9911,943.20
Year 4 PV (M)13,142.8213,648.2614,168.13
Year 5 PV (M)14,914.5415,634.9216,382.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)332,699.60348,769.11365,453.65
Equity Value (M)388,719.77406,586.67425,118.43
Shares Outstanding (M)900.59900.59900.59
Fair Value$431.63$451.47$472.05
Upside / Downside-43.43%-40.83%-38.13%

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