Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Telecom Corporation Limited (601728.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.99 - $78.76$38.17
Multi-Stage$9.83 - $10.75$10.28
Blended Fair Value$24.22
Current Price$6.66
Upside263.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.48%14.27%0.260.220.290.090.100.100.080.080.070.07
YoY Growth--17.29%-24.41%214.47%-8.89%4.17%17.48%0.50%16.04%5.34%-0.61%
Dividend Yield--3.28%3.64%4.58%2.31%1.66%1.59%1.35%1.35%1.16%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36,373.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,722.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,651.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,274.664,546.672,728.00
Cash Retained (M)20,651.0420,651.0420,651.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,274.66-4,546.67-2,728.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,376.3716,104.3717,923.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91,507.1091,507.1091,507.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Fair Value$16.99$38.17$78.76
Upside / Downside155.14%473.12%1,082.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36,373.3238,591.5640,945.0743,442.1146,091.4448,902.3450,369.41
Payout Ratio43.22%52.58%61.93%71.29%80.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,722.2820,291.3725,359.2730,969.8437,170.4244,012.1046,591.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.07%7.07%7.07%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Year 1 PV (M)18,773.7018,952.3319,130.96
Year 2 PV (M)21,707.7022,122.7622,541.75
Year 3 PV (M)24,527.5725,234.3925,954.65
Year 4 PV (M)27,236.5228,288.0229,369.67
Year 5 PV (M)29,837.6631,284.4432,786.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)776,977.68814,652.08853,773.92
Equity Value (M)899,060.84940,534.01983,557.76
Shares Outstanding (M)91,507.1091,507.1091,507.10
Fair Value$9.83$10.28$10.75
Upside / Downside47.52%54.33%61.39%

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