Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Vale S.A. (XVALO.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.99 - $16.58$13.63
Multi-Stage$22.61 - $24.84$23.71
Blended Fair Value$18.67
Current Price$11.02
Upside69.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.921.341.513.070.780.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---31.60%-11.27%-50.82%291.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.03%10.65%9.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,502.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,464.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,038.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,100.40687.75412.65
Cash Retained (M)2,038.002,038.002,038.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,100.40-687.75-412.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)937.601,350.251,625.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,272.844,272.844,272.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.320.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.320.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.131.19
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.99$13.63$16.58
Upside / Downside-0.26%23.67%50.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,502.005,446.985,392.515,338.595,285.205,232.355,389.32
Payout Ratio62.96%68.37%73.78%79.18%84.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,464.003,723.943,978.344,227.284,470.844,709.114,985.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,439.233,474.333,509.42
Year 2 PV (M)3,393.273,462.883,533.19
Year 3 PV (M)3,329.943,432.923,538.00
Year 4 PV (M)3,252.543,387.343,526.29
Year 5 PV (M)3,163.953,328.713,500.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,039.7884,207.6488,547.34
Equity Value (M)96,618.71101,293.80106,154.49
Shares Outstanding (M)4,272.844,272.844,272.84
Fair Value$22.61$23.71$24.84
Upside / Downside105.19%115.12%125.44%

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