Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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XTB S.A. (XTB.WA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$420.38 - $1,360.32$1,274.82
Multi-Stage$185.96 - $203.14$194.39
Blended Fair Value$734.61
Current Price$81.46
Upside801.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS96.87%0.00%5.024.851.501.790.240.170.350.320.780.66
YoY Growth--3.46%224.00%-16.20%645.84%41.18%-51.43%9.37%-58.97%18.11%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.37%8.55%4.73%9.23%1.40%3.69%8.85%5.81%8.49%5.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)804.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)640.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)163.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.80100.5060.30
Cash Retained (M)163.24163.24163.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.80-100.50-60.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.4462.74102.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.54117.54117.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.530.88
LTM Dividend per Share5.455.455.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.530.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.475.996.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$420.38$1,274.82$1,360.32
Upside / Downside416.05%1,464.97%1,569.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)804.00856.26911.91971.191,034.311,101.541,134.59
Payout Ratio79.70%81.76%83.82%85.88%87.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)640.75700.05764.34834.04909.57991.391,049.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)648.87655.02661.18
Year 2 PV (M)656.68669.19681.82
Year 3 PV (M)664.18683.25702.68
Year 4 PV (M)671.38697.20723.76
Year 5 PV (M)678.29711.05745.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,538.2119,433.6120,363.28
Equity Value (M)21,857.6122,849.3223,877.77
Shares Outstanding (M)117.54117.54117.54
Fair Value$185.96$194.39$203.14
Upside / Downside128.28%138.64%149.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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