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Definitive Analysis

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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.32 - $171.26$127.14
Multi-Stage$129.87 - $142.25$135.94
Blended Fair Value$131.54
Current Price$112.75
Upside16.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.66%3.74%3.803.403.403.393.383.333.142.962.832.75
YoY Growth--11.80%0.01%0.10%0.40%1.45%6.19%6.13%4.40%3.00%4.51%
Dividend Yield--3.19%2.90%3.10%4.11%6.06%8.78%3.84%3.96%3.45%3.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29,953.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17,236.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,717.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,990.603,744.132,246.48
Cash Retained (M)12,717.0012,717.0012,717.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,990.60-3,744.13-2,246.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,726.408,972.8810,470.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,396.504,396.504,396.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.532.042.38
LTM Dividend per Share3.923.923.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.532.042.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.455.966.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Fair Value$95.32$127.14$171.26
Upside / Downside-15.46%12.76%51.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29,953.0030,774.4331,618.3832,485.4833,376.3534,291.6635,320.41
Payout Ratio57.54%64.03%70.53%77.02%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17,236.0019,706.3422,299.2125,019.4727,872.1630,862.4932,671.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Year 1 PV (M)18,142.9618,321.2818,499.60
Year 2 PV (M)18,901.3919,274.7719,651.80
Year 3 PV (M)19,524.7120,106.1020,698.91
Year 4 PV (M)20,025.3120,824.2921,646.94
Year 5 PV (M)20,414.6521,437.8222,501.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)473,947.15497,701.06522,397.98
Equity Value (M)570,956.17597,665.31625,396.84
Shares Outstanding (M)4,396.504,396.504,396.50
Fair Value$129.87$135.94$142.25
Upside / Downside15.18%20.57%26.16%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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