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Definitive Analysis

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George Weston Limited (WN-PA.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$246.77 - $566.91$360.24
Multi-Stage$326.86 - $358.88$342.57
Blended Fair Value$351.40
Current Price$84.89
Upside313.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.58%4.10%3.072.932.822.632.522.451.851.761.701.24
YoY Growth--4.72%3.81%7.31%4.27%2.82%32.37%5.24%3.62%36.42%-39.33%
Dividend Yield--3.75%4.80%4.72%5.12%6.79%7.31%5.77%5.12%4.39%3.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,613.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)442.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,171.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)322.70201.69121.01
Cash Retained (M)1,171.501,171.501,171.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-322.70-201.69-121.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)848.80969.811,050.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.15130.15130.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.527.458.07
LTM Dividend per Share3.403.403.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.527.458.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.9210.8511.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate2.22%3.22%4.22%
Fair Value$246.77$360.24$566.91
Upside / Downside190.70%324.36%567.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,613.501,665.431,719.031,774.351,831.461,890.401,947.11
Payout Ratio27.39%39.92%52.44%64.96%77.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)442.00664.76901.401,152.581,418.991,701.361,801.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate2.22%3.22%4.22%
Year 1 PV (M)619.15625.20631.26
Year 2 PV (M)781.94797.32812.84
Year 3 PV (M)931.24958.84986.98
Year 4 PV (M)1,067.831,110.231,153.89
Year 5 PV (M)1,192.471,251.961,313.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,948.7139,841.6541,809.38
Equity Value (M)42,541.3444,585.1946,708.13
Shares Outstanding (M)130.15130.15130.15
Fair Value$326.86$342.57$358.88
Upside / Downside285.04%303.54%322.76%

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