Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT HATTEN BALI Tbk (WINE.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.22 - $153.87$130.03
Multi-Stage$168.21 - $184.91$176.40
Blended Fair Value$153.22
Current Price$220.00
Upside-30.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-20.30%0.00%2.351.950.000.000.007.300.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41,698.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,368.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)35,329.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,339.645,212.283,127.37
Cash Retained (M)35,329.7135,329.7135,329.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,339.64-5,212.28-3,127.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)26,990.0730,117.4432,202.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,710.702,710.702,710.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.9611.1111.88
LTM Dividend per Share2.352.352.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.9611.1111.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.3113.4614.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$107.22$130.03$153.87
Upside / Downside-51.26%-40.89%-30.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41,698.2141,281.2340,868.4240,459.7340,055.1439,654.5840,844.22
Payout Ratio15.27%30.22%45.16%60.11%75.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,368.5012,474.4718,457.6924,320.0030,063.2135,689.1337,780.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11,303.2011,418.5311,533.87
Year 2 PV (M)15,154.2815,465.1315,779.14
Year 3 PV (M)18,092.5818,652.1119,223.05
Year 4 PV (M)20,265.2221,105.1221,970.86
Year 5 PV (M)21,798.7222,933.8324,115.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)369,364.43388,598.10408,624.78
Equity Value (M)455,978.44478,172.83501,247.44
Shares Outstanding (M)2,710.702,710.702,710.70
Fair Value$168.21$176.40$184.91
Upside / Downside-23.54%-19.82%-15.95%

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