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Definitive Analysis

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Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$146.11 - $243.20$227.92
Multi-Stage$39.73 - $43.47$41.57
Blended Fair Value$134.74
Current Price$5.43
Upside2,381.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.83%0.00%0.210.480.780.100.000.380.570.230.000.00
YoY Growth---55.10%-38.64%700.56%0.00%-100.00%-32.84%147.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.95%5.87%11.60%2.01%0.00%26.59%15.51%3.96%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,004.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)568.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)436.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)200.80125.5075.30
Cash Retained (M)436.00436.00436.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-200.80-125.50-75.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)235.20310.50360.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)821.01821.01821.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.380.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.380.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$146.11$227.92$243.20
Upside / Downside2,590.72%4,097.35%4,378.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,004.001,069.261,138.761,212.781,291.611,375.571,416.83
Payout Ratio56.57%63.26%69.94%76.63%83.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)568.00676.40796.50929.351,076.101,238.011,310.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)630.90636.88642.86
Year 2 PV (M)692.93706.13719.45
Year 3 PV (M)754.11775.76797.82
Year 4 PV (M)814.45845.77877.98
Year 5 PV (M)873.95916.16959.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,853.6830,247.3231,694.30
Equity Value (M)32,620.0034,128.0135,692.39
Shares Outstanding (M)821.01821.01821.01
Fair Value$39.73$41.57$43.47
Upside / Downside631.71%665.53%700.63%

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