Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. (WALMEX.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.23 - $63.52$48.63
Multi-Stage$38.96 - $42.44$40.67
Blended Fair Value$44.65
Current Price$56.57
Upside-21.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.79%5.62%2.152.671.701.621.782.071.472.461.671.82
YoY Growth---19.31%56.81%4.86%-8.87%-13.97%40.56%-40.17%47.57%-8.21%45.83%
Dividend Yield--3.82%4.04%2.36%1.98%2.76%3.71%2.81%5.30%3.86%4.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50,490.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,399.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,091.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,098.106,311.313,786.79
Cash Retained (M)13,091.0513,091.0513,091.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,098.10-6,311.31-3,786.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,992.956,779.749,304.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,381.4917,381.4917,381.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.390.54
LTM Dividend per Share2.152.152.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.390.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.322.542.69
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Fair Value$37.23$48.63$63.52
Upside / Downside-34.18%-14.03%12.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50,490.5052,824.2955,265.9557,820.4760,493.0763,289.2065,187.87
Payout Ratio74.07%77.26%80.44%83.63%86.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,399.4540,810.8944,457.7848,354.6252,516.7256,960.2860,298.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)36,716.1637,070.4937,424.81
Year 2 PV (M)35,984.0736,681.9437,386.52
Year 3 PV (M)35,211.2736,240.5537,289.70
Year 4 PV (M)34,405.0735,752.5237,139.16
Year 5 PV (M)33,572.0835,223.5736,939.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)501,268.52525,927.19551,546.87
Equity Value (M)677,157.16706,896.26737,726.49
Shares Outstanding (M)17,381.4917,381.4917,381.49
Fair Value$38.96$40.67$42.44
Upside / Downside-31.13%-28.11%-24.97%

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