Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.11 - $219.41$162.06
Multi-Stage$94.33 - $102.91$98.54
Blended Fair Value$130.30
Current Price$86.72
Upside50.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.08%0.00%1.611.561.521.160.920.470.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.09%3.19%30.25%25.96%97.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.50%4.27%1.41%0.98%1.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)899.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)719.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)179.96112.4867.49
Cash Retained (M)719.40719.40719.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-179.96-112.48-67.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)539.44606.93651.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)109.63109.63109.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.925.545.95
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.925.545.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.577.187.59
WACC / Discount Rate11.22%11.22%11.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.11$162.06$219.41
Upside / Downside39.66%86.87%153.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)899.80958.291,020.581,086.911,157.561,232.801,269.79
Payout Ratio20.05%34.04%48.03%62.02%76.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.40326.19490.18674.10879.861,109.521,174.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.22%11.22%11.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)290.53293.29296.04
Year 2 PV (M)388.86396.27403.74
Year 3 PV (M)476.30489.98503.91
Year 4 PV (M)553.73575.02596.92
Year 5 PV (M)621.93651.97683.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,009.588,396.458,798.12
Equity Value (M)10,340.9310,802.9611,281.89
Shares Outstanding (M)109.63109.63109.63
Fair Value$94.33$98.54$102.91
Upside / Downside8.78%13.64%18.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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