Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Koninklijke Vopak N.V. (VPK.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.95 - $111.29$90.19
Multi-Stage$130.51 - $143.41$136.84
Blended Fair Value$113.51
Current Price$42.22
Upside168.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.49%4.80%1.521.351.301.241.211.161.111.111.050.95
YoY Growth--12.51%4.02%4.19%3.01%3.99%4.85%0.07%5.02%11.06%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.57%4.40%4.67%4.04%2.81%2.40%2.79%3.07%2.35%2.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)925.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)368.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)557.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.18115.7469.44
Cash Retained (M)557.10557.10557.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.18-115.74-69.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)371.92441.36487.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.99120.99120.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.073.654.03
LTM Dividend per Share3.053.053.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.073.654.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.126.707.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate-1.01%-0.01%0.99%
Fair Value$71.95$90.19$111.29
Upside / Downside70.41%113.63%163.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)925.90925.77925.65925.52925.39925.26953.02
Payout Ratio39.83%49.87%59.90%69.93%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)368.80461.64554.45647.24740.00832.74881.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate-1.01%-0.01%0.99%
Year 1 PV (M)425.49429.79434.09
Year 2 PV (M)471.03480.59490.26
Year 3 PV (M)506.80522.32538.15
Year 4 PV (M)534.07555.98578.56
Year 5 PV (M)553.95582.50612.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,298.8413,984.3014,697.74
Equity Value (M)15,790.1816,555.4917,351.01
Shares Outstanding (M)120.99120.99120.99
Fair Value$130.51$136.84$143.41
Upside / Downside209.12%224.10%239.68%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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