Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Van Lanschot Kempen N.V. (VLK.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$352.04 - $1,272.92$1,115.90
Multi-Stage$165.55 - $180.89$173.08
Blended Fair Value$644.49
Current Price$54.60
Upside1,080.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.28%22.05%2.203.883.492.210.171.482.822.130.590.56
YoY Growth---43.20%11.24%57.84%1,236.32%-88.83%-47.60%32.60%262.09%5.99%84.77%
Dividend Yield--5.06%13.78%15.92%10.04%0.79%7.38%14.25%8.19%2.94%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)273.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.7934.2520.55
Cash Retained (M)85.9185.9185.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.79-34.25-20.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.1251.6765.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.8042.8042.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.731.211.53
LTM Dividend per Share4.394.394.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.731.211.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.125.605.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$352.04$1,115.90$1,272.92
Upside / Downside544.76%1,943.76%2,231.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)273.97291.78310.74330.94352.45375.36386.62
Payout Ratio68.64%72.91%77.18%81.46%85.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.06212.74239.84269.57302.15337.82357.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)196.89198.76200.63
Year 2 PV (M)205.44209.35213.30
Year 3 PV (M)213.70219.84226.09
Year 4 PV (M)221.69230.21238.98
Year 5 PV (M)229.40240.48251.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,019.106,309.826,611.67
Equity Value (M)7,086.227,408.467,742.65
Shares Outstanding (M)42.8042.8042.80
Fair Value$165.55$173.08$180.89
Upside / Downside203.21%217.00%231.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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