Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Veolia Environnement S.A. (VIE.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$213.05 - $584.65$547.91
Multi-Stage$85.57 - $93.45$89.43
Blended Fair Value$318.67
Current Price$30.25
Upside953.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.90%14.13%1.321.191.050.570.580.690.630.600.710.69
YoY Growth--11.29%13.16%84.13%-1.20%-16.32%10.05%5.21%-15.72%1.89%96.62%
Dividend Yield--4.88%4.19%4.38%1.77%2.99%3.02%3.62%2.91%4.53%3.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,168.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,108.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)433.62271.01162.61
Cash Retained (M)60.1060.1060.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-433.62-271.01-162.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)-373.52-210.91-102.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)737.50737.50737.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.51-0.29-0.14
LTM Dividend per Share2.862.862.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.51-0.29-0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.352.572.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$213.05$547.91$584.65
Upside / Downside604.28%1,711.26%1,832.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,168.102,309.032,459.112,618.962,789.192,970.483,059.60
Payout Ratio97.23%95.78%94.34%92.89%91.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,108.002,211.642,319.852,432.782,550.592,673.442,830.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,053.982,073.452,092.92
Year 2 PV (M)2,000.902,039.012,077.48
Year 3 PV (M)1,948.722,004.662,061.66
Year 4 PV (M)1,897.451,970.422,045.48
Year 5 PV (M)1,847.061,936.282,028.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,356.5755,933.7258,609.49
Equity Value (M)63,104.6965,957.5468,915.94
Shares Outstanding (M)737.50737.50737.50
Fair Value$85.57$89.43$93.45
Upside / Downside182.86%195.65%208.91%

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