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Valhi, Inc. (VHI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.07 - $7.46$6.22
Multi-Stage$7.74 - $8.47$8.10
Blended Fair Value$7.16
Current Price$15.78
Upside-54.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.61%-13.16%0.320.320.320.320.480.950.950.950.950.95
YoY Growth--0.00%1.11%0.00%-33.82%-49.82%0.00%-0.37%0.37%0.00%-27.35%
Dividend Yield--1.96%1.92%1.81%1.08%2.33%7.69%3.30%1.31%2.42%6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.682.301.38
Cash Retained (M)9.309.309.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.68-2.30-1.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.627.007.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.5028.5028.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.560.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Fair Value$5.07$6.22$7.46
Upside / Downside-67.86%-60.60%-52.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.4018.4418.4818.5318.5718.6119.17
Payout Ratio49.46%57.57%65.67%73.78%81.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.1010.6212.1413.6715.2116.7517.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Year 1 PV (M)9.619.719.81
Year 2 PV (M)9.9510.1510.36
Year 3 PV (M)10.1510.4610.77
Year 4 PV (M)10.2210.6411.07
Year 5 PV (M)10.2010.7211.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)170.37179.12188.24
Equity Value (M)220.50230.81241.52
Shares Outstanding (M)28.5028.5028.50
Fair Value$7.74$8.10$8.47
Upside / Downside-50.97%-48.68%-46.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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