Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Vector Group Ltd. (VGR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.63 - $12.31$10.44
Multi-Stage$16.97 - $18.63$17.79
Blended Fair Value$14.11
Current Price$10.94
Upside28.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-10.95%-1.36%0.820.830.860.831.551.461.371.291.221.09
YoY Growth---1.58%-2.68%2.78%-46.18%5.72%6.56%6.30%5.74%12.44%15.63%
Dividend Yield--7.66%6.94%7.11%5.97%16.43%14.14%7.43%7.19%6.50%6.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.9324.9614.98
Cash Retained (M)73.1973.1973.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.93-24.96-14.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.2548.2358.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.96153.96153.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.310.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.310.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.26%8.26%8.26%
Growth Rate-3.36%-2.36%-1.36%
Fair Value$8.63$10.44$12.31
Upside / Downside-21.10%-4.60%12.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.67194.97190.37185.89181.50177.23182.54
Payout Ratio63.35%68.68%74.01%79.34%84.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.49133.90140.89147.48153.68159.50168.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.26%8.26%8.26%
Growth Rate-3.36%-2.36%-1.36%
Year 1 PV (M)122.42123.68124.95
Year 2 PV (M)117.76120.21122.69
Year 3 PV (M)112.70116.24119.84
Year 4 PV (M)107.37111.88116.53
Year 5 PV (M)101.88107.26112.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,050.692,159.002,271.84
Equity Value (M)2,612.822,738.282,868.73
Shares Outstanding (M)153.96153.96153.96
Fair Value$16.97$17.79$18.63
Upside / Downside55.12%62.57%70.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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