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Definitive Analysis

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Virginia National Bankshares Corporation (VABK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.52 - $488.35$351.45
Multi-Stage$61.08 - $66.76$63.87
Blended Fair Value$207.66
Current Price$38.81
Upside435.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.65%26.53%1.311.311.181.180.600.580.460.260.200.16
YoY Growth--0.18%10.67%-0.25%97.29%3.31%27.49%78.05%26.83%22.56%32.20%
Dividend Yield--3.63%4.48%3.28%3.43%1.98%2.23%1.24%0.65%0.70%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.661.661.00
Cash Retained (M)5.865.865.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.66-1.66-1.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.204.194.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.415.415.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.780.90
LTM Dividend per Share1.371.371.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.780.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.152.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$125.52$351.45$488.35
Upside / Downside223.43%805.56%1,158.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.2914.1515.0716.0517.0918.2118.75
Payout Ratio55.94%62.75%69.56%76.38%83.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.438.8810.4812.2614.2216.3917.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.218.298.37
Year 2 PV (M)8.969.139.30
Year 3 PV (M)9.699.9610.25
Year 4 PV (M)10.3910.7911.20
Year 5 PV (M)11.0711.6012.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)282.20295.83309.98
Equity Value (M)330.51345.60361.25
Shares Outstanding (M)5.415.415.41
Fair Value$61.08$63.87$66.76
Upside / Downside57.37%64.56%72.01%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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